摘要： 利用《清史·灾赈志》中的历史灾害信息,重建清代(公元1644—1911年)华北蝗灾、水灾和旱灾的逐年频次序列,并以核密度估计法刻画3种灾害的空间分布,在此基础上展开时空对比分析。结果表明,蝗灾频次体现出一定的阶段性,1640s—1690s与1800s—1850s为2个多发时段,空间上主要分布于冀鲁豫三省的平原地区及山西的汾河谷地。年际尺度上蝗灾与旱灾呈显著正相关,干旱对于蝗灾的触发作用较为明显,但极端干旱会在一定程度上抑制蝗灾的规模;水灾对于当年灾区的蝗情有显著抑制,但灾后由涝转旱的气候背景可能诱发大面积蝗灾。在空间上,蝗灾与水旱灾害多发区有良好的对应,但水旱灾害的不同影响机制以及蝗虫的迁飞特性,使得3种灾害的极端多发区并不重合。蝗灾最集中的区域呈新月状分布于河北省西部,可能是蝗虫从孳生地(海河水系下游近水荒滩)迁飞于此,在太行山脉的阻隔之下形成。上述结论有助于推进对历史时期蝗灾发生机制的科学认识,以及指导气候变化背景之下的蝗灾防治工作。

关键词: 蝗灾, 水灾, 旱灾, 时空分布, 华北, 清代

Abstract: Based on the information about historical disaster kept in the Qing History,annual frequency series of locust plague,flood and drought in North China during the Qing dynasty(1644-1911 AD)have been reconstructed,and the spatial distribution of the three disasters has been described with Kernel Density Estimation. It is found that locust plague occurred more frequently in 1640s-1690s and 1800s-1850s,and mainly distributed in the plains of Hebei,Shandong and Henan Province,as well as the Fen river valley in Shanxi Province. The frequency series of locust plague has significant positive correlation with drought under the inter-annual scale,which means drought would trigger locust plague. However,extreme drought event could also limit the severity of locust plague. In the years of flood,the occurrence rate of locust plague was below the average. Large-scale locust plague might occur in the flood disaster areas in the next years when it turned drier. The areas with frequent locust plague have good spatial relationship with flood and drought. However,the areas with the highest risk of locust do not exactly coincide with flood and drought because of the influence mechanism,as well as the habits and lifestyle of the oriental migratory locust. There is a crescent region with the most frequent locust plague in western Hebei Province. The locusts emigrating from their breeding places which distributed in the low-lying alluvial land in the downstream of Hai River are forced to stop and swarm in this region by the Taihang Mountains. The above results would benefit better understanding of the mechanism of locust plague in the past,and provide references for fighting against locust plague under the background of climate change.

Key words: locust plague, flood, drought, spatial-temporal distribution, North China, Qing dynasty

中图分类号: 

• P467

• X43