摘要: 使用历史方志资料,根据台风发生时风雨潮洪的特点和文献记录中对它们的文字描述,建立了台风天气灾害现象筛选词语表,提取了台风相关信息,建立了长江三角洲地区公元1644—1949年历史台风灾害数据库。通过对现代台风过程中天气现象和可能造成灾害特征的分析,从历史台风描述词语、风雨潮现象发生的时间和空间特征、台风灾害链、风雨持续时间、台风风向、地形等方面制定了辨识历史台风的4条直接判别准则和6条辅助辨识依据,逐年辨识台风事件。与器测资料相对比,检验了历史台风事件重建的结果,公元1884—1949年间共重建出65次台风事件,相当于器测数的87.8%,两者相差1次以下的年数为55 a,占83.3%,说明利用方志资料重建台风频次序列的可靠性,为重建历史台风频次序列提供了方法支持,对研究长时间台风活动与气候变化的关系具有科学意义。
关键词:
方志,
历史台风,
长江三角洲地区
Abstract: Based on the characteristics of strong winds,heavy rains,tidal surge,and floods associated with the process of typhoon and related descriptions in chorographies, a table of description for identifying historical typhoon disasters was made. Information on historical typhoon from historical chorographies was extracted from the table,and the Historical Typhoon Database in 1644-1949 AD in the Yangtze River Delta area was made.Referring to knowledge about modern typhoon,the criteria for identifying historical typhoon including 4 direct standards and 6 assisted evidences was confirmed in terms of words about historical typhoon,typhoon weather phenomenon,typhoon disaster chains,surge situations,storms duration,winds direction,terrain. According to the historical chorographies in 1884-1949 AD, typhoon activities occurred 65 times,which equal to 87.8% of the frequency of meteorological observation.The number of year with the frequency difference in typhoon activities reconstructed by two ways smaller than one is 55 and totals 83.3%.It means that the series of historical typhoon based on historical chorographies is reliable. This research could suggest a method for reconstructing the series of historical typhoon frequency, and is very useful for the research on long-term typhoon activities under the background of climate change.
Key words:
chorographies,
historical typhoon,
Yangtze River Delta area
中图分类号:
张向萍, 叶瑜, 方修琦. 公元1644—1949年长江三角洲地区历史台风频次序列重建*[J]. 古地理学报, 2013, 15(2): 283-292.
Zhang Xiangping, Ye Yu, Fang Xiuqi. Reconstructing series of historical typhoon frequency from 1644 AD to 1949 AD in Yangtze River Delta area[J]. JOURNAL OF PALAEOGEOGRAPHY, 2013, 15(2): 283-292.