古地理学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (2): 283-292. doi: 10.7605/gdlxb.2013.02.024

• 古今地理环境及人类文明 • 上一篇    

公元1644—1949年长江三角洲地区历史台风频次序列重建*

张向萍1, 叶瑜1,2, 方修琦1,2   

  1. 1 北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院,北京100875; 2 教育部北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害重点实验室,北京100875
  • 收稿日期:2012-07-25 修回日期:2012-11-06 出版日期:2013-04-01 发布日期:2013-04-01
  • 作者简介:张向萍,女,1985年生,北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院2011级博士研究生,自然灾害与环境演变专业,主要从事历史气候和灾害的重建研究。E-mail:zhangxiangping85@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(编号:2010CB950103)、“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目(编号:2008BAK50B07)和国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40901099)共同资助

Reconstructing series of historical typhoon frequency from 1644 AD to 1949 AD in Yangtze River Delta area

Zhang Xiangping1, Ye Yu12, Fang Xiuqi1,2   

  1. 1 School of Geography,Beijing Normal University,Beijing100875; 2 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education. Beijing Normal University,Beijing100875
  • Received:2012-07-25 Revised:2012-11-06 Online:2013-04-01 Published:2013-04-01
  • About author:Zhang Xiangping,born in 1985,is a doctoral candidate of grade 2011 in Beijing Normal University. She is currently engaged in environmental evolution in the past and historical disasters reconstruction.E-mail:zhangxiangping85@163.com.

摘要: 使用历史方志资料,根据台风发生时风雨潮洪的特点和文献记录中对它们的文字描述,建立了台风天气灾害现象筛选词语表,提取了台风相关信息,建立了长江三角洲地区公元1644—1949年历史台风灾害数据库。通过对现代台风过程中天气现象和可能造成灾害特征的分析,从历史台风描述词语、风雨潮现象发生的时间和空间特征、台风灾害链、风雨持续时间、台风风向、地形等方面制定了辨识历史台风的4条直接判别准则和6条辅助辨识依据,逐年辨识台风事件。与器测资料相对比,检验了历史台风事件重建的结果,公元1884—1949年间共重建出65次台风事件,相当于器测数的87.8%,两者相差1次以下的年数为55 a,占83.3%,说明利用方志资料重建台风频次序列的可靠性,为重建历史台风频次序列提供了方法支持,对研究长时间台风活动与气候变化的关系具有科学意义。

关键词: 方志, 历史台风, 长江三角洲地区

Abstract: Based on the characteristics of strong winds,heavy rains,tidal surge,and floods associated with the process of typhoon and related descriptions in chorographies, a table of description for identifying historical typhoon disasters was made. Information on historical typhoon from historical chorographies was extracted from the table,and the Historical Typhoon Database in 1644-1949 AD in the Yangtze River Delta area was made.Referring to knowledge about modern typhoon,the criteria for identifying historical typhoon including 4 direct standards and 6 assisted evidences was confirmed in terms of words about historical typhoon,typhoon weather phenomenon,typhoon disaster chains,surge situations,storms duration,winds direction,terrain. According to the historical chorographies in 1884-1949 AD, typhoon activities occurred 65 times,which equal to 87.8% of the frequency of meteorological observation.The number of year with the frequency difference in typhoon activities reconstructed by two ways smaller than one is 55 and totals 83.3%.It means that the series of historical typhoon based on historical chorographies is reliable. This research could suggest a method for reconstructing the series of historical typhoon frequency, and is very useful for the research on long-term typhoon activities under the background of climate change.

Key words: chorographies, historical typhoon, Yangtze River Delta area

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