1300&#x02014;2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害时空分布特征<sup>&#x0002A;</sup>

doi:10.7605/gdlxb.2023.06.074

古地理学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 241-254. doi: 10.7605/gdlxb.2023.06.074

• 人类历史时期古地理学 • 上一篇

1300—2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害时空分布特征^*

李亮^1,2,3, 郭俊丽³, 时连强³, 张永战^1,2

1 南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京 210023;
2 南京大学海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室,江苏南京 210023;
3 自然资源部第二海洋研究所,浙江杭州 310012

收稿日期:2022-12-19 出版日期:2024-02-01 发布日期:2024-01-23
通讯作者: 张永战,男,1970年生,博士,南京大学副教授、硕士生导师,主要从事滨岸地貌与第四纪地质研究。E-mail: zhangyzh@nju.edu.cn。
作者简介:李亮,男,1999年生,南京大学地理与海洋科学学院硕士研究生,主要从事河口海岸过程与环境效应研究。E-mail: mg21270012@smail.nju.edu.cn。
基金资助:
*江苏省自然资源发展专项资金(海洋科技创新)项目“江苏海岸侵蚀地质灾害评价技术体系研究”(编号: JSZRHYKJ202104)和国家重点研发计划项目“典型海岸侵蚀防护与活力海岸构建关键技术”(编号: 2022YFC3106200)共同资助

Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of storm surge disasters in Jiangsu coastal area from 1300 to 2019

LI Liang^1,2,3, GUO Junli³, SHI Lianqiang³, ZHANG Yongzhan^1,2

1 School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;
2 Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Development of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;
3 The Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310012,China

Received:2022-12-19 Online:2024-02-01 Published:2024-01-23
Contact: ZHANG Yongzhan, born in 1970,Ph.D.,an associate professor in Nanjing University,is mainly engaged in the studies on coastal geomorphology and Quaternary Geology. E-mail: zhangyzh@nju.edu.cn.
About author:LI Liang,born in 1999,is a master degree candidate at the School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,is mainly engaged in research on estuarine and coastal processes and environmental effects. E-mail: mg21270012@smail.nju.edu.cn.
Supported by:
Special Fund for Natural Resources Development of Jiangsu Province(Marine Science and Technology Innovation)Project “Research on Geological Hazard Assessment Technology System of Jiangsu Coastal Erosion”(No. JSZRHYKJ202104)and the National Key Research and Development Program “Key Technology for Typical Coastal Erosion Protection and Active Coastal Construction”(No. 2022YFC3106200)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 历史上江苏沿海曾频发2类风暴潮灾害,给当地带来了巨大损失。建立该地区长时间尺度的风暴潮灾害序列对了解过去与预测未来意义重大。以历史文献、地方志、海洋灾害公报等记载的风暴潮资料为基础,建立了风暴潮灾害识别体系,重建了1300—2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害序列,分析了风暴潮灾害时空变化规律,探究了其与气候异常和黄河、长江入海口变迁之间的关系。结果表明: 江苏沿海地区主要受台风风暴潮灾害的影响,1300—2019年间共发生246次风暴潮灾害,平均周期为2.9年,且近100年来发生频率有增大的趋势; 小波分析结果显示,风暴潮灾害年际变化存在17年、61年和115年的时间尺度周期,其中115年周期最为明显。海气相互作用影响下,厄尔尼诺活跃年江苏沿海台风风暴潮灾害偏少; 气温与台风风暴潮灾害频次有一定的正相关性,但其影响机制尚不明确。盐城、南通和苏州为风暴潮灾害高发地区,常州和无锡发生频率较小。在气候变暖与江苏海岸冲淤变化的作用下,1855年后盐城和南通地区风暴潮灾害发生频率增加,连云港地区明显增加; 随着海岸线的变迁与长江河口的演变,镇江、扬州、泰州与苏锡常地区受风暴潮灾害影响减少。

关键词: 江苏沿海, 风暴潮灾害, 厄尔尼诺, 海岸冲淤

Abstract: Historically,two kinds of storm surge disasters occurred frequently along the coast of Jiangsu Province,which brought huge losses to this region. Establishing a long-term sequence of these disasters is crucial for understanding historical patterns and forecasting future events. Based on the records of storm surges in historical documents,local chronicles,marine disaster bulletins,etc.,a storm surge disaster identification system has been established,and the storm surge disaster sequence along the coast of Jiangsu Province from 1300 to 2019 has been reconstructed. Then,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the storm surge disaster along Jiangsu coast have been analyzed. Finally,the relationship between the storm surge disaster and climate anomalies,the evolution of the estuaries of the Yellow River and the Changjiang River have been explored. Our analysis of the temporal and spatial variations reveals that Jiangsu's coast experienced 246 storm surge disasters from 1300 to 2019,averaging one every 2.9 years,with a notable increase in frequency over the past century. There are 17,61 and 115 year time scale cycles in the interannual variation by wavelet analysis,of which the 115 year cycle is most pronounced. We observed that typhoon storm surges tend to decrease during active El Niño years,possibly due to air-sea interactions. Additionally,our study indicates a positive correlation between temperature rise and the frequency of typhoon storm surges,although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Geographically,Yancheng,Nantong,and Suzhou are the regions with high incidence of storm surge disasters,while Changzhou and Wuxi are less affected. Since 1855,climate warming and coastal erosion and siltation changes in Jiangsu Province,result in an increase in storm surge disasters in Yancheng and Nantong,and a significant rise in the Lianyungang region. Following the migration of coastline and the evolution of the Changjiang River estuary,the impact of storm surge disasters in Zhenjiang,Yangzhou,Taizhou,and Suzhou,Wuxi,and Changzhou regions has decreased.

Key words: Jiangsu coastal area, storm surge disaster, El Nino, coastal erosion and siltation

中图分类号:

P532

李亮, 郭俊丽, 时连强, 张永战. 1300—2019年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害时空分布特征^*[J]. 古地理学报, 2024, 26(1): 241-254.

LI Liang, GUO Junli, SHI Lianqiang, ZHANG Yongzhan. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of storm surge disasters in Jiangsu coastal area from 1300 to 2019[J]. JOPC, 2024, 26(1): 241-254.

http://www.gdlxb.cn/CN/Y2024/V26/I1/241

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