摘要： 气候变暖背景下,极端寒冷事件仍有发生且常伴随严重的经济、社会影响,需要更为深入的研究。1929—1930年极端冷冬事件作为增暖背景下的极端冷事件,对其研究相对缺乏。通过收集并分析民国时期的气象器测资料和报刊资料,对1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件进行探讨。结果表明: (1)本次冷冬的空间范围包括华北地区、长江流域(重庆至入海口段)和北疆地区,西北地区可能存在冷冬;寒冷的核心时段为1929年12月到次年1月。(2)本次冷冬时空范围内的地区月平均气温极端性强,华北、长江流域的12月份均温都超过十年一遇的冷事件水平,长江流域、北疆地区的1月份均温均超过五十年一遇水平;但月最低气温的极端性较弱,大部分站点月的最低温达到五年一遇水平,部分站点月超过十年一遇水平。(3)本次冷冬至少经历了7次区域性或全国性的降温事件,其中有3次降温事件达到全国性寒潮事件标准,时段分别为12月1—5日、12月16—20日和1月1—5日;其中第1次和第3次是影响中国的典型中路寒潮路径,第2次降温过程的时空特征不显著。(4)综合本次冷冬前旱后涝气候特点、该时段内ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)指数的变化以及前人对ENSO和中国气候变异的关系研究,推测1920s末到1930s初期的气象灾害很大程度受影响于ENSO事件。

关键词: 1929—, 1930年冷冬, 极端冷冬事件, 民国时期, 重建, 气候

Abstract: Under the background of climate warming,extreme cold events still occur and are often accompanied by serious economic and social impacts,which should be further studied. As an extreme cold event in the context of global warming,the research on the extreme cold winter event between 1929 and 1930 is relatively limited. This paper discusses the extreme cold winter events in China during 1929-1930 by collecting and analyzing meteorological data and newspaper records. The results show that: (1)The scope of this cold winter includes North China,Yangtze River Basin(from Chongqing to estuary)and North Xinjiang,and there may be a cold winter in Northwest China. The peak cold periods lasted from December 1929 to January1930;(2)In the region affected by cold winter,there are extreme monthly mean temperature. The mean temperature in December in North China and the Yangtze River Basin exceeded the cold event level of once every ten years. The mean temperature in January in the Yangtze River Basin and the northern Xinjiang exceeded the level of once every fifty years. However,the extremity of minimummonthly temperature is weak. The lowest temperature data collected from most stations reached the level of once every five years,only some of them exceeded the level of once every ten years;(3)This cold winter experienced at least seven regional/national cold events,among which three cold events reached the standard of national cold wave events,which occurred from Dec. 1st to 5th,from Dec. 16th to 20th and from Jan. 1st to 5th. The first and third cold waves were the typical cold wave of middle path affecting China. The spatial distribution of the second cold event was not obvious;(4)Based on the climatic characteristics of drought before the cold winter,and flood after the cold winter,the change of ENSO index during this period and previous studies on the relationship between ENSO and climate change in China,it was speculated that the meteorological disasters between the late 1920s and the early 1930s were greatly affected by ENSO events.

Key words: 1929-1930 cold winter, extreme cold winter event, Republic of China Period, reconstruction, climate

中图分类号: 

• P467