摘要： 利用历史文献记录重建了公元1000—2000年中国北方地区极端干旱事件序列,在此基础上分析极端干旱事件的发生特征与规律。研究得出以下结论: (1)极端干旱事件在公元1000—2000年中存在200年左右的周期波动。在15世纪中期、17世纪初期和18世纪末期存在3次极端干旱事件高发期。(2)极端干旱事件的变动与中国东部地区干湿变化相一致,在偏干的时期极端干旱事件发生次数上升,在偏湿时则下降。(3)在中世纪暖期和现代暖期,温度愈高,极端干旱事件偏多;而在小冰期,则温度偏低的时期极端干旱事件多发。(4)西风带影响下的非季风区,干湿变化与极端干旱事件的关系与华北季风区相反,这可能与所谓的“丝绸之路遥相关”和NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation, 北大西洋涛动)的影响有关。

关键词: 历史文献, 中国北方地区, 极端干旱, 小波分析

Abstract: Based on historical documents records as proxy data,we reconstructed the sequence of extreme drought events in North China during AD 1000-2000, and then analysed the characteristics and principle of these extreme drought events. Main conclusions from this study are as follows: (1)The extreme drought events show oscillations with a period of 200 a,and there exist three high-incidence periods including the middle 15th century,the early 17th century and the late 18th century. (2)Changes of extreme drought events are consistent with humidity changes in the eastern China. When the humidity is low,the probability of extreme droughts is high,and vice versa. (3)Extreme drought events are more likely to occur during the medieval and modern warm periods,and the coldest period in the Little Ice Age. (4)When the relationship between humidity and extreme drought events is considered, there is a stable inverse correlation between the North China monsoon regions and non-monsoon areas that influenced by westerly wind. This phenomenon is probably affected by “silk road pattern”and NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation).

Key words: historical documents, north of China, extreme drought, wavelet analysis

中图分类号: 

• P532

• P426.616